Election campaigns in Indonesia are in the final stretch as Wednesday's vote approaches. Also, concerning delays in Pakistan's vote count and democracy takes a hit in Senegal.

This Valentine's Day, the people of Indonesia expressed their desire for more than just a romantic partner. The world's third-largest democracy went to the polls on February 14th, and while voters decided on more than just a new president — legislative elections took place on the same day — incumbent President Joko Widodo's ineligibility for a third term meant the race to become head of state dominated the coverage.

Three main contenders emerged, with frontrunner Prabowo Subianto of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition in a strong position to capture the presidency without a second-round run-off. The former general, alongside his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, boasted a comfortable lead in the polls, recently seeing highs of 53%.

In part, Prabowo could thank the incumbent for this. Joko Widodo — ubiquitously referred to as Jokowi — enjoys high approval ratings and made public appearances that appeared to favour a Prabowo-Gibran ticket. Sitting presidents typically stay neutral in Indonesia, so this caused controversy. Given Gibran is Jokowi's son, his support did not come as a surprise.

Questions of dynasty

Jokowi's involvement raised questions of dynastic politics. Gibran was only allowed to run for the vice presidency after a constitutional change lowering the age limit — pushed through by a Chief Justice who was later forced to resign due to ethics violations after not recusing himself from the case. Seeing as he was Gibran's uncle, complaints of a conflict of interest were understandable.

The PDI-P nominee whom Jokowi appeared to have turned his back on was Ganjar Pranowo, the two-time governor of Java. As recently as October, Ganjar was neck and neck with Prabowo in the polls — only to find himself more than thirty points behind by February. Most significant was Gibran's confirmation on the opposition ticket following the Supreme Court ruling; it was no coincidence that Ganjar's support plummeted in tandem.

The third candidate, Anies Baswedan, most represented a vote against the status quo. His emphasis upon education reform, tackling income inequality, and greater safeguards for the environment were popular, particularly in Jakarta where he served as governor. However, accusations of divisiveness and a selective interpretation of Indonesian history left him unable to expand beyond his base.

Regional implications

Whatever the outcome, Indonesia's election carries significant regional implications. The country sits in an important geopolitical location striking a delicate balance between the United States and China. The victor will also dictate policy that impacts whether the country can accomplish its goal of reaching advanced-economy status by 2045.

What's next
  1. Pakistan's general election saw unprecedented delays in vote counting, with results from the first constituencies not received for more than ten hours after polls closed. Expected frontrunner Nawaz Sharif and his PML-N party are trailing to a string of independent candidates many of whom are associated with PTI — the party of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Nine people were killed in attacks before polls closed, despite border closures and troop deployments intended to provide security for voters.
  2. Senegal is usually a beacon for African democracy. On Monday, this reputation went up in smoke as President Macky Sall's decision to delay this month's election sparked massive protests. Internet blackouts and the arrest of opposition politicians have done little to quell the unrest. International observers urged Senegal to get back on track, with the United States calling on the government to hold the vote and the EU warning the situation "taints the long tradition of democracy."
  3. Against absolutely no odds, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev won a fifth consecutive term with more than 92% of the vote in a snap election brought forward to capitalise on his recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh. Critics questioned the legitimacy of the vote and noted that opposition boycotts and suppression resulted in no meaningful challengers.
Election calendar
  • February 11th – Finland Presidential Election (second round)
  • February 14th – Indonesia General Election
  • February 25th – Belarus Parliamentary Election
  • February 25th – Cambodia Senate Election
  • March 1st – Iran Legislative Election
Final thoughts

Allegations of human rights abuses be damned. Bringing in Jokowi's son isn't the only thing that Prabowo has done to boost his campaign. The frontrunner for Indonesia's next president has become known for his meme-worthy campaign antics, now referred to as a 'harmless grandpa' as he dances between campaign events. He's even incorporated some cat content into his campaign. We can only assume once his campaign manager watches Saltburn that we'll see Prabowo dancing to Sophie Ellis-Bextor.