Campaign season begins in Mexico as the country is set to elect its first female leader. Also, a Biden-Trump rematch seems all but certain after Super Tuesday, and Venezuela springs an early election surprise.

Mexico has long been known for its entrenched 'machismo' ethos. The country has a history of gender-based persecution, from persistent inequality to significant acts of femicide — women killed because of their gender. Two centuries of Mexican independence has not seen a woman elected president. This year, with two women as the clear frontrunners, Mexico looks set to take a step towards changing that macho culture.

Election day is set for June 2nd, but campaigning began on Friday. In addition to a new president, citizens will select candidates for 628 congressional seats, as well as a number of other local positions across all 32 jurisdictions. With cartel conflicts escalating, Mexico is gearing up for one of its most critical elections in history.

Claudia Sheinbaum, who holds a significant lead in the polls, is backed by the incumbent Morena party and for many represents a continuation of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's left-wing leadership. Her closest opposition is Senator Xóchitl Gálvez, a strong critic of the current government who has seen steady gains in opinion polls since announcing her intention to run in October — but remains in a distant second, some twenty points behind.

Handouts and homicide

Security is top of the agenda for many voters. Homicide rates remain the highest of any OECD country, and López Obrador has done little to bring that figure down during his six years in office. His approach of expanding welfare to remove incentives for discontented youth to join cartels has not worked. Ms Sheinbaum has claimed she would keep the social welfare programs of her predecessor, so the "hugs, not bullets" campaign is likely to continue. In contrast, Ms Gálvez has vowed to stop paying the 'cartel tax' implemented by the current government, promising to take back Mexico "from the hands of the criminals."

The economy also dominates. Growth has been stable under López Obrador, and one of his biggest achievements has been making significant progress in reducing poverty levels through significantly increasing the minimum wage — by more than 100% in just six years. But funding for such welfare programs will have to come from somewhere. Ms Sheinbaum asserts she will not raise taxes, but may not have a choice. Mexico already collects much lower taxes than its OECD counterparts, and the economy is not growing at a rate significant enough to account for such budgetary shortfalls.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss

While Ms Gálvez has seen her favourability rise in recent months, it has not been at the significant expense of her rival. All signs point to a rout by Ms Sheinbaum come election day. Where she may struggle is in the years that follow — she will take over an unsafe country with a stagnant economy following a president who found little success in solving either of those problems. By pledging to continue the policies set by her predecessor, she may be setting herself up for failure.

What's next
  1. Nikki Haley's long-shot bid for the White House came to an end after Trump claimed a decisive victory in 14 of 15 primary elections on Super Tuesday. The withdrawal was not followed by an endorsement — Haley challenged Trump to earn the votes of her supporters ahead of November. A super PAC that gave support to Haley's primary campaign has relaunched under the name 'Haley Voters for Biden'.
  2. After an uncertain start to the year, democracy in Senegal appears to have found its footing. The courts mandated that the vote must occur before President Macky Sall's term concludes in early April, leading to approval of a new date — March 24th — by the country's Constitutional Council. Despite breathing a sigh of relief, candidates face the unprecedented challenge of securing support during Ramadan in the space of just two weeks.
  3. Venezuela confirmed presidential elections will be held on July 28th, earlier than expected. A January court decision upheld a ban preventing popular opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado from running, leading to US sanctions and concerns about the fairness of the electoral process. President Nicolas Maduro is expected to seek re-election, after a first term marred with controversy.
Election calendar
  • March 10th – Portugal Legislative Election
  • March 17th – Russia Presidential Election
  • March 23rd – Slovakia Presidential Election (first round)
  • April 10th – South Korea Legislative Election
  • April 21st – Maldives Parliamentary Election
Final thoughts

Keeping with Venezuela, here's a throwback for those who aren't familiar with Nicolas Maduro's style of leadership. Having succeeded Hugo Chavez in 2013, Mr Maduro found himself responsible for a country experiencing significant food shortages. He first exacerbated the problem by refusing humanitarian aid. He then capitalised on the starvation of his citizens, embezzling funds from procurement programs and distributing food in exchange for votes in the 2018 election. Finally, he showed everyone his sympathetic side when he pulled an empanada out of a drawer and ate it on live television while addressing a famished nation. Truly a man of the people.