Tomorrow's Republican presidential primary could see Donald Trump put the final nail in Nikki Haley's coffin. Also, an 'election' with very little choice in Belarus, and the well dries up for campaign fundraising in India.

You would be forgiven for thinking that the nominees for November's U.S. presidential election are already set in stone. The chances of a Biden-Trump rematch remain high, but Nikki Haley is doing everything possible to convince voters otherwise, with Saturday's Republican primary in South Carolina the next stop on the campaign trail.

Saturday's vote is the latest in a series of early Republican nominating contests ahead of Super Tuesday in March. As South Carolina has no formal party registration, the primary is open to registered voters irrespective of party affiliation. This weekend is crucial for Haley; with a sixty-point gap nationwide between the two candidates, anything less than a strong showing in her home state may prove fatal.

Haley's comet

On paper, Nikki Haley should have found South Carolina to be a favourable stop on her campaign. She was elected to the South Carolina legislature on three occasions and was twice voted to be the state's governor. In 2016, she declined an offer from then-President-elect Trump to be his Secretary of State, taking up a proposal as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations instead. Her popularity in South Carolina seemed to persist long after her tenure as governor — as recently as November, her favourability held strong at 71 percent.

Then the primary season began. Nikki Haley first lost Iowa, coming in third place behind Trump and the now-withdrawn Ron DeSantis. She then lost New Hampshire by eleven points despite the state skewing more moderate and college-educated. She even accrued fewer votes in Nevada than the symbolic protest option, 'None of these candidates.' Head-to-head polls ahead of Saturday's primary continue to paint a bleak picture — she is expected to lose by thirty points.

The attacks from Trump have been relentless. From complaints of her being "disloyal", to falsely claiming she supported Obama in 2012, to repeated mockery of her birthname, Nimarata. His latest jibe was to insinuate that her husband chose a voluntary military deployment to Djibouti to get away from her — which lit a fire under Haley, who hit back claiming such remarks should rule him unfit to be commander in chief. None of it has had any impact on his approval rating.

Pardon me, Mr Trump

Haley's strategy is complicated further as she insists on claiming she would pardon Trump in the event one of his many legal issues results in a conviction. It's an approach that sees her firmly in second place, and one that bets on due process triumphing over Trumpian delay tactics. The legal battles facing the former president are well documented — cases of fraud, defamation, and sexual assault have all ruled against Trump, resulting in penalties in the hundreds of millions. Separate trial dates loom for charges related to falsifying records and mishandling classified documents.

Money matters

Despite her back being against the wall, Nikki Haley has vowed not to withdraw from the campaign — even if she is trounced in her home state. The decision to stay in the race may not be entirely up to her, but her foundation of financial backers. Should they withdraw, she'll struggle to keep her head above water and be forced to concede. This would suit Trump for a number of reasons — at least some of Haley's megadonors would likely shift to funding his presidential campaign, welcome given the extent of his legal troubles and the hefty fines he has been presented with.

Opinion polls would need to be inaccurate to unprecedented levels for Trump not to sweep the state. The people of South Carolina do like Nikki Haley — a decade of strong favourability ratings demonstrate that. They just so happen to love Donald Trump.

What's next
  1. Belarus held its first election since a 2020 vote handed President Alexander Lukashenko a sixth consecutive term. With genuine opposition formally banned and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya exiled to Lithuania, Belaya Rus — the party loyal to Lukashenko — is set to secure a majority. Tsikhanouskaya called for a boycott of the election, condemning it as a "farce." Some citizens were likely to vote for Lukashenko-approved candidates out of fear of being punished for not doing so, highlighting the levels of political suppression that exist in the country.
  2. Ursula von der Leyen announced she will seek a second term as President of the European Commission. The rise of far-right political movements in Europe — Germany's AfD, France's National Rally, Spain's Vox — could create hurdles for her re-election bid, though she remains the favourite given that most heads of state, with the exception of Viktor Orban, think she's done a good job.
  3. India's Supreme Court banned anonymous election donations via the electoral bonds system, calling them "unconstitutional." The system, established in 2017 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP, provided a platform for anonymous donations with no limits on individual or corporate purchases. Given the short timeframe before the next election, it is unlikely to have much impact on the outcome — but could provide greater parity to a country that hosts the most expensive elections in the world.
Election calendar
  • February 25th – Belarus Parliamentary Election
  • February 25th – Cambodia Senate Election
  • March 1st – Iran Legislative Election
  • March 10th – Portugal Legislative Election
  • March 17th – Russia Presidential Election
Final thoughts

By-elections in the United Kingdom can go by with little fanfare. Next Thursday's by-election in Rochdale is far from the norm. Pundits have described the constituency as 'cursed', after the death of Labour MP Tony Lloyd prompted a vote for the seat which once belonged to child abuser Cyril Smith. Now the Labour candidate has been suspended; the Liberal Democrat candidate is not supported by his own prospective party councillors; and a BBC debate was cancelled because participants withdrew just before the broadcast. This leaves George Galloway, a renowned British firebrand leading the Workers' Party for Britain with a slogan of "for the workers not the wokers," as the favourite. The circus metaphor is often overused in politics but in this instance, it feels apt.