A detailed preview of Pakistan's general election — the military's enduring role as kingmaker, the incarceration of Imran Khan, and what a return of Nawaz Sharif would mean for the country.
Tomorrow, tens of millions of voters across Pakistan will go to the polls to decide their next government. The removal from office of former Prime Minister Imran Khan — who lost a no-confidence vote nearly two years ago — has been central to this election; as has the manner of his removal. Khan was quick to accuse the military of orchestrating events in collusion with the United States. In the two years since, Khan has been disqualified from holding public office, shot in the leg, unlawfully arrested by paramilitary troops, arrested again on corruption charges, and finally convicted of corruption and sentenced to 14 years in jail.
Despite all of this, Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), remains popular — particularly among youth voters, with a recent poll putting PTI at a 34% approval rating. However, the party has been stripped of its famous electoral symbol, the cricket bat, forcing candidates to run as independents. It's a significant blow in a country where close to half the population is illiterate.
This leaves several major players in the running. Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) represent traditional Pakistani politics, with both parties having governed the country in the past. Candidates have fought over a range of pivotal issues: a looming economic crisis, significant security concerns, and worries about public healthcare and education. All of this has led to rising youth disillusionment, presenting a problem for two candidates that many feel represent a brand of politics that hasn't worked for decades.
The return of establishment politics
If, as expected, Sharif claims victory, he would enter the Prime Minister's office for a fourth term — itself not without controversy, given he was disqualified from running for office after a corruption charge in 2017, only to have that decision overturned by the Supreme Court. He would likely continue the path set by his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif, who as caretaker Prime Minister oversaw rapid development of nationwide infrastructure projects at what became known as "Shehbaz speed" — though that moniker was not always a term of endearment, given the 27% rise in inflation during his tenure.
The other notable candidate, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari of the PPP, also represents a political dynasty — his grandfather and mother are both former Prime Ministers. His relatively young age of 35 and relative inexperience have drawn criticism, though the PPP remains hugely popular in Sindh, the country's second most populous province.
The two parties differ significantly on economic policy, the role of government, foreign relations with the United States and China, and social welfare. PML-N prioritises infrastructure development and deregulation to attract foreign investment — notably through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor established under Sharif's tenure. The PPP favours greater government involvement in the economy, expanded education programmes, and stronger social safety nets.
Favoured son or military puppet?
Discussions of Pakistani politics would not be complete without highlighting the influence of the military. Since the establishment of Pakistan in 1947, the country has endured multiple military coups, cumulatively finding itself under military rule for more than 30 years. A former army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, admitted that the military had meddled in politics for decades. It's no secret that the armed forces act as a kingmaker, and they appear to have picked their nominee: Nawaz Sharif.
Even with the support of the military, Sharif's legitimacy will remain questionable due to the silencing of such a popular opposition figure. Accusations of election interference have only been exacerbated by the detention, intimidation, and censorship of PTI members. This crackdown on dissent continues a dangerous precedent of stifling crucial political discourse. Elections in Pakistan are typically filled with buzzing campaign rallies and a population at fever pitch. Not this time.