El Salvador's favourite authoritarian looks set to win a controversial re-election bid with ease. Also, a second electoral candidate is killed in Pakistan, and U.S. Republicans can't stop talking about Taylor Swift.

This Sunday, millions of voters in El Salvador descended upon voting booths. Seven candidates appeared on the ballot and yet, despite widespread economic concerns, a serious erosion of civil liberties, and half a dozen lines in the constitution prohibiting consecutive presidential terms, opinion polls suggested that more than two thirds would vote to re-elect Nayib Bukele — a man who once described himself as "the coolest dictator in the world."

Many Salvadorans, regardless of worries about the economy or constitutional law, believe that Bukele has earned the right to stay in his post. His relentless suppression of gang culture has brought safety to a country that has not known it for a generation. Homicide rates have plummeted, the extortion of local shopkeepers has largely disappeared, and even football pitches can now be frequented by children. For a country that less than a decade ago was referred to as "the murder capital of the world", it's an impressive turnaround.

Bukele's methods have spread throughout the region, with neighbouring countries looking to replicate El Salvador's success. In January, Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa declared a 'state of internal armed conflict', arresting more than a thousand people in little more than a week — his inspiration is clear. Candidates in Colombia have promised similar infrastructure should they reach the mayor's office. Opinion polls in the country have shown a majority of Colombians wishing Bukele were their president.

Ends and means

Bukele's critics argue that the ends don't justify the means. He has found success through a rampant abuse of civil liberties, initiating a 'state of emergency' and seizing people solely on tips from anonymous phone calls. Arrests extend beyond gang members and into anyone Bukele considers opposition. People have been jailed to such an extent that prisons in El Salvador are compared to sardine tins — more than 2% of the country's adult population are currently incarcerated.

Joel Sánchez, presidential candidate for the right-wing ARENA party, pledged to strengthen democratic institutions weakened by Bukele. Manuel Flores, the left-wing FMLN candidate, advocated for social programs and rehabilitation over totalitarianism. Both parties represent the contemporary history of El Salvador — they traded power for three decades until Bukele's New Ideas party took over in 2019. Despite their opposition, Bukele was never going to lose Sunday's election. No other candidate polled higher than 5%, and his comfortable majority gave him a good shot at re-election without the need for a second round.

For many Salvadorans, accepting authoritarianism in exchange for security appears to be a worthwhile trade — particularly when the alternative was a country where more than 100 people per 100,000 were killed every year.

What's next
  1. With Pakistan's elections approaching on February 8th, the country registered its second electoral death. Rehan Zeb Khan was campaigning as an independent when he was shot dead in a market on Wednesday. Violence has surged ahead of next Thursday's election, with attacks from Islamic State Khorasan and Baloch separatists among those claiming responsibility. The arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his subsequent 14-year prison sentence likely stoked the fires further.
  2. In Indonesia, President Joko Widodo has been making frequent appearances with frontrunner Prabowo Subianto, drawing controversy for departing from the tradition that sitting presidents stay neutral. Critics remain unconvinced by Jokowi's insistence that he is doing nothing wrong — a cabinet minister resigned over his lack of impartiality, and analysts credit his backing as a key factor in Prabowo's strong polling lead.
  3. The first round of Finland's presidential election took place and, as expected, no candidate received a majority. Frontrunner Alexander Stubb received 27% of the vote, narrowly beating Pekka Haavisto on 26%, sending both to a second-round run-off on February 11th. Right-wing firebrand Jussi Halla-aho finished with 19%.
Election calendar
  • February 4th – El Salvador General Election
  • February 7th – Azerbaijan Presidential Election
  • February 8th – Pakistan General Election
  • February 11th – Finland Presidential Election (second round)
  • February 14th – Indonesia General Election
Final thoughts

In their fight to see Donald Trump returned to the White House, some Republicans have decided that their best strategy is to accuse Taylor Swift of being a Democrat-planted 'psyop'. It seems that Swift encouraging young people to vote, along with the occasional clip of her cheering on her boyfriend during football matches, has gone too far for some. Vivek Ramaswamy went so far as to suggest that the Super Bowl is rigged to give Swift a platform to endorse Joe Biden. Apparently, the billionaire pop star with a global social media following who sells out stadium tours worldwide needs help getting her message across via a football game. Go figure.