South Africa sets a date for the most unpredictable general election in the country's history. Also, Iranians vote in their first election since the death of Mahsa Amini, while Hun Sen consolidates power in Cambodia.

South Africa has announced that national elections will take place on May 29th, in a vote that may see the ruling African National Congress (ANC) lose a majority it has held for three decades. President Cyril Ramaphosa, seeking re-election, called the vote a "determination of the future that we all desire." His call is likely to fall on deaf ears.

Citizens are tired of a deluge of corruption and crime, as well as a soaring unemployment rate which has hit highs of 35% in recent years. Fewer than half of all eligible voters turned out in 2019 — a far cry from the 86% who voted to cast their ballot for Nelson Mandela in 1994. Turnout is likely to be even lower this time around.

Blackouts and black marks

Cyril Ramaphosa rose to the presidency in 2018, replacing Jacob Zuma after a string of corruption allegations. The country has been 'loadshedding' since 2007, managing the electricity supply via planned power outages due to the inability of state utility provider Eskom to meet nationwide demand. These rolling blackouts have increased in frequency significantly since 2019, and Eskom's departing chief executive claimed he did not believe the government had the "political will" to end corruption within the power utility.

Crime paints a further concerning picture for the ANC. Reports of attempted murder, robbery, common assault, and sexual assault are all higher than at the start of Ramaphosa's term. South Africa's rampant inequality — ranked the world's most unequal country — exacerbates the problem. The ratio of private security guards to police officers has quadrupled since Nelson Mandela's time in office. Unemployment has not dropped below 20% since the 20th century, and opinion polls ahead of the election have dropped the ANC below a 40% approval rating nationwide.

South African avengers, assemble

The strongest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), is expected to challenge the ANC through the Multi-Party Charter — a coalition of smaller parties seeking to combine their votes. Top of the agenda remains the elimination of loadshedding, with the intention to open the energy sector to independent power producers.

Yet it is not John Steenhuisen and his coalition who currently occupy the political zeitgeist — that accolade belongs to Julius Malema. The populist leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has been climbing in the polls, recently equalling the DA's 20% voting intentions. Unlike Steenhuisen, Malema is a political firebrand — suspended from parliament after storming the stage during Ramaphosa's state-of-the-nation address to demand the president's resignation. His proposals include land expropriation without compensation and the nationalisation of mines and banks — considered radical by many, but resonating with an electorate that feels repeatedly let down by the ANC.

Julius Malema, kingmaker

Should the ANC lose their majority — as opinion polls suggest — Ramaphosa would need to broker a coalition. Any coalition would be a first for South Africa. An alliance with the DA is unlikely, given the DA has seen black leaders depart in droves, problematic in a country where only 7% of the population is white. This may result in Malema holding the strongest hand come election day. Some within the ANC are preparing for a potential ANC-EFF coalition, one that would likely see Malema demand a senior cabinet post. Ramaphosa wants to remain in charge, and Julius Malema may be the man who can give it to him — for a price.

What's next
  1. Iran's parliamentary election took place in a vote that revealed the depth of discontent amid widespread economic and social unease. Low turnout reflected the political legitimacy crisis facing the clerical establishment, weakened after mass protests following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022. Hard-line groups loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei are expected to maintain their parliamentary dominance, though the body does not determine key policy areas — these remain under Khamenei's control.
  2. Tuvalu named former Attorney General Feleti Teo as the country's new prime minister. Teo committed to continuing diplomatic ties with Taiwan and pledged to revisit a controversial pact signed with Australia that would provide climate refugees with safe haven, citing an "absence of transparency and consultations" behind the treaty.
  3. Senate elections in Cambodia saw the ruling Cambodian People's Party claim 55 of the 58 contested seats, further solidifying the grip of the Hun family upon political power. Hun Sen will assume the role of Senate president after stepping down as prime minister and handing the position to his son, Hun Manet. The election campaign was marred with allegations of intimidation and vote-buying.
Election calendar
  • March 1st – Iran Legislative Election
  • March 10th – Portugal Legislative Election
  • March 17th – Russia Presidential Election
  • March 17th – Maldives Parliamentary Election
  • March 23rd – Slovakia Presidential Election (first round)
Final thoughts

Even bastions of democracy like North Korea need to move their elections to manage political situations from time to time. Elections for the Supreme People's Assembly were expected in March, but Kim Jong-un appears keen to push through constitutional amendments reinforcing his 'two-states' narrative separating North and South Korea — and as the newly elected body would need to ratify such changes, the election will have to wait. Few leaders can benefit from such luxuries, though Mr Kim does so at his own peril — elections late last year saw his chosen candidates receive only 99.91% of the vote.