Today marks the beginning of Russia's presidential election as Putin cements himself in power for six more years. Also, right-wing successes across Europe and a fiery US State of the Union address.

Today marks the beginning of a long weekend in Russia — one in which a futile exercise in 'democracy' will hand Vladimir Putin another six years in power. In a country where dissent is punished through exile, incarceration, or death, the idea of holding an election seems rather pointless. Especially given Putin, who by the end of this term will have ruled the country for longer than Joseph Stalin did, eliminated any meaningful opposition some time ago. The recent death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny cemented that fact further.

What this means is the Russian presidential election is nothing more than a constitutional norm followed for theatre's sake — one which Putin believes is important, particularly at a time when his country wages war against Ukraine. His encouragement for a high turnout at the polls is his means of seeking ceremonial public approval. Having repeatedly lied to his people, claiming the war is a 'military operation' with the goal of "denazifying" their western neighbour, Putin will use the result as a legitimisation of his autocracy.

Prolonging Putin

In charge since the turn of the century, Vladimir Putin should have left office following the conclusion of a second four-year term in 2008. However, a series of events orchestrated by Putin ensured he would remain in power for generations to come. After leaving the presidency in accordance with consecutive term limit rules, he was appointed prime minister by new President Dmitry Medvedev — effectively ruling the country from his new office. Putin then concocted constitutional changes, altering presidential terms from four years to six. Reclaiming the presidential office in 2012, he oversaw further amendments allowing him to seek an additional two terms from 2024. This places Putin in the likely scenario of leading Russia until 2036.

This isn't to say that Putin is without his supporters. One non-governmental polling organisation puts his approval rating consistently over 60% since he became president. Since invading Ukraine, a nationalist narrative pushed predominantly through domestic media outlets has edged that as high as 80%. Economic challenges anticipated by Western sanctions did not bear as much fruit as expected, and Putin benefits from political apathy among a population that sees even placid attempts at protest violently suppressed.

Navalny's high noon

This suppression extends into the traditional political arena. Boris Nadezhdin, a well-known anti-war figure, saw his candidacy disqualified by the election commission after they questioned the legitimacy of signatures nominating him for the ballot. Yekaterina Duntsova, another independent candidate critical of the war, was disqualified due to 'errors' in her campaign group's registration documents. Unsurprisingly, these are two of the candidates most critical of Putin and his war.

This leaves Vladislav Davankov as the least hawkish candidate on the ballot. While not openly anti-war, he has called for talks with Ukraine and criticised wartime censorship. One state pollster puts his popularity at around 5%. Alexei Navalny, before his death, encouraged his followers to use the election as a means to express themselves. His widow Yulia Navalnaya has urged protesters to turn out at noon on Sunday — the final day of the election — as a show of protest against Putin.

Giving the dictator his dues

Predicting a victor is not nearly as much of a challenge as forecasting turnout. Citizens across 11 time zones will provide Putin with the symbolic reassurance he needs to rule with an iron fist for six more years. Given autocrats have a tendency for claiming their support increases throughout their tenure, and Putin has enacted more waves of political suppression than ever before, don't be surprised if he claims 80% of the vote — up from 77% in 2018.

What's next
  1. Results in Portugal's snap election indicate a pivotal shift, with the centre-right Democratic Alliance narrowly claiming victory and displacing the incumbent Socialist party. Notably, the far-right Chega party saw a significant surge, securing the third-highest number of votes — reflecting the broader traction gained by far-right populists across the continent. Despite Chega's success, both the Democratic Alliance and the Socialists have refused to govern alongside Chega leader André Ventura, meaning a minority government is on the horizon.
  2. Right-wing parties found further success in Italy's regional election in Abruzzo, with Marco Marsilio claiming 54% of the vote. The election did forecast a potential shift towards the centre however — Abruzzo shunned the hard-right League party, with the centre-right Forza Italia outperforming expectations.
  3. Joe Biden and Donald Trump officially secured their parties' nominations for the 2024 presidential election — the first rematch in 70 years. Biden's State of the Union address was fiery, alluding to Putin being a Nazi, rebuking Israel for lack of care for innocent lives in Gaza, and lambasting Supreme Court justices for their decision to revert Roe vs. Wade. The Republican rebuttal from Alabama Senator Katie Britt drew widespread mockery across the political spectrum.
Election calendar
  • March 17th – Russia Presidential Election
  • March 17th – Maldives Parliamentary Election
  • March 23rd – Slovakia Presidential Election (first round)
  • April 10th – South Korea Legislative Election
  • April 17th – Solomon Islands General Election
Final thoughts

Donald Trump was not the only Republican who was unimpressed during the State of the Union. As is tradition, the opposing party provided a response immediately following the President's address, this time given by Alabama Senator Katie Britt. To say it didn't go well would be an understatement. Her speech has been panned across the political spectrum and she has been the butt of every joke under the sun from a string of late-night talk show hosts. If you can handle twenty minutes of uncanny-valley sociopathy, give it a watch. Or just check out Scarlett Johansson's impression instead. Originally I referred to Ms Johansson's work as a parody, but that felt dishonest given the insanity of the actual speech.