Ahead of Sunday's presidential election, Finland sees a surge in popularity for far-right anti-immigration campaigner Jussi Halla-aho. Also, Donald Trump takes New Hampshire, and press freedoms in Azerbaijan come under pressure.

Jussi Halla-aho, leader of the right-wing populist Finns Party, once wrote on immigration that, "Since rapes will increase in any case, the appropriate people should be raped: in other words, green-leftist do-gooders and their supporters." In what will likely be the final opinion polls before the first round of Finland's presidential election on Sunday, Halla-aho finds himself with an 18% approval rating — gaining eight percentage points in the last eight weeks, according to a poll conducted by Finland's national broadcaster Yle.

This surge puts him within striking distance of Green League candidate Pekka Haavisto on 23%, and frontrunner Alexander Stubb of the National Coalition Party (NCP) on 27%. Halla-aho appears to have clawed a considerable amount of those gains from Stubb, seemingly from right-wing Eurosceptics concerned with the issue of immigration — prominent in Finland since November, following the arrival of large numbers of asylum seekers at the border from Russia.

Halla-aho has long been outspoken on immigration, earning himself a conviction for 'ethnic agitation' from Finland's Supreme Court in 2012. However, unlike many other right-wing European populists who advocate for closer ties with the Kremlin, Halla-aho is staunchly anti-Russian, taking a strong pro-Ukrainian stance. He has previously described Russia as "thoroughly corrupt", and warned against the construction of Nord Stream gas pipelines at a time when Finns saw trade with Russia as crucial.

NATO's newest member goes to the polls

Sunday's election is Finland's first since the country joined NATO — a direct response to Russia's war in Ukraine. Putin has replied with antagonism: the rise in asylum claims was orchestrated by Russia in an effort to cause turmoil at the border, forcing Finland to close its entire 832-mile border with its eastern neighbour. On Wednesday, Putin followed up by terminating a 2012 agreement designed to promote cross-border cooperation between the two countries.

This leaves Pekka Haavisto in an uncomfortable spot. He has acknowledged the threats posed by Russia, particularly in recent weeks at the border, yet the media have focused on his condemnation of those who would use the situation as an opportunity to criticise legitimate asylum claims. While Haavisto was right to do so, the timing has not been ideal during both a border crisis and an election campaign.

Despite Halla-aho's surge, Finnish voters appear most likely to throw their support behind Alexander Stubb. EU membership remains hugely popular across the country, and Stubb represents a pro-European candidate advocating greater European involvement in NATO. Head-to-head opinion polls put Stubb with a sixteen-point lead over Haavisto, with that gap jumping to a fifty-point lead should his opposition turn out to be Halla-aho. Unless pre-election opinion polls in Finland are spectacularly incorrect, we can expect a second round of voting on February 11th, followed by the inauguration of Alexander Stubb on March 1st.

What's next
  1. Donald Trump swept Nikki Haley aside in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday with a 54–43 result, leaving Haley undeterred but with her back against the wall heading into South Carolina. Trump's incendiary rhetoric has escalated — from false birther claims to repeated mockery of her birth name, Nimarata. It is a clear deviation from his previous tactic of positioning himself above the need to squabble with his primary opponents, attending zero debates and still claiming resounding victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.
  2. The little island nation of Tuvalu went to the polls, with the result expected to determine the country's stance on its formal recognition of Taiwan over the People's Republic of China. Current finance minister Seve Paeniu, running for an unopposed seat, claimed to have begun talks with other candidates in an effort to secure the prime minister's role — and indicated he would consider reviewing Tuvalu's diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
  3. In Azerbaijan, ahead of the country's presidential election on February 7th, the government has strengthened its crackdown on media freedoms, detaining nearly a dozen journalists since November on charges ranging from hooliganism to unpermitted housebuilding. Press freedom watchdogs described the charges as fabricated and reflective of a history of journalistic repression from Baku. President Ilham Aliyev called the snap election in December following his successful recapture of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Election calendar
  • January 28th – Finland Presidential Election (first round)
  • February 4th – El Salvador General Election
  • February 7th – Azerbaijan Presidential Election
  • February 8th – Pakistan General Election
  • February 14th – Indonesia General Election
Final thoughts

Pakistan is seeing a unique form of election interference ahead of the country's general election on February 8th — pictographic censorship. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is known locally by its iconic cricket bat election symbol. That is, until Pakistan's Supreme Court stripped PTI from using it, alleging that intra-party voting had not taken place in preparation for the general election. Election symbols are particularly important in a country where more than 40% of the population is illiterate. Perhaps PTI can get the word out that supporters should vote for the candidate with no symbol at all?