Trump's resounding victory at the Iowa caucus leaves the Republican runners-up at a crossroads. Also, a tight race for the Finnish presidency and a refreshingly peaceful transition of power in South Asia.

Presidential primaries are like walking a tightrope. Candidates are forced to strike a delicate balance, between pointing out weaknesses in rival party members while showing the capability to be a party unifier. They must also pander to their own supporter base while remaining broad enough to appeal to an entire nation come the general election.

As a result, primaries are often remembered for one significant quadrennial moment that either makes or breaks a candidate. Ronald Reagan funding a debate and lambasting the moderator by reminding him who paid for the microphone catapulted him to success against George H.W. Bush in 1980. Hillary Clinton's "change you can Xerox" quote was a famous attempt to accuse Barack Obama of plagiarism in 2008 that was more memorable for the chorus of boos it elicited from the audience. Chris Christie's criticism of Marco Rubio's pre-prepared, robotic incorrectness spelled the end of Rubio's 2016 campaign.

With that in mind, what is the Republican primary of 2024 likely to be remembered for? Chances are, it will go down in history as the race for second place. With victory in Monday's Iowa caucus, Donald Trump is one step closer to a November showdown with Joe Biden — and he's done it so far without attending a single primary debate. Not to mention that with more than 50% of the votes in Iowa, he's done it convincingly too. The result was such a lock that the networks called it just 30 minutes into the count.

As for his opposition, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis remain in the race for now while trailing far behind Trump, both tallying a distant 20% of votes in Iowa. Chris Christie withdrew from the race a few days before Iowans made their choice. Vivek Ramaswamy withdrew a few minutes after Trump was declared the victor — his departure came as a direct endorsement, compared to Christie's indirect one with his scathing criticism of Nikki Haley caught on a hot mic.

None of this comes as a surprise. Haley and DeSantis have been loath to criticise Trump during their campaigns, should they risk drawing the ire of his significant supporter base. Only in recent weeks have they begun to turn up the heat on Trump, though even this has been mild — focusing more on Trump's desire to look backwards rather than highlighting his litany of first-term errors.

Haley's best shot

Defeat in Iowa was something Haley anticipated — her real test comes in New Hampshire. Haley has garnered significant support from the traditional Republican base, which is more moderate and college-educated than the majority of Trump supporters. Should the 12% of Granite State voters that supported Chris Christie switch to Haley in his absence, it would put her as a slight favourite to win Tuesday's vote. Recent polling suggests this is exactly what has happened, with the two neck and neck on 40%. A victory in New Hampshire would put Haley firmly ahead of DeSantis in second place, though make no mistake — it is a distant second.

The Ron DeSantis campaign looks even bleaker. Despite spending double that of pro-Trump campaigners, DeSantis still lost Iowa by more than 30 points. He is also polling far below both Trump and Haley in South Carolina and Michigan. A path to victory for DeSantis is even less clear than it is for Nikki Haley.

Why stay in the race?

There are a couple of prevailing theories behind what is keeping Trump's opponents on the ballot in spite of his overwhelming popularity. First is Trump's long list of lawsuits casting a cloud over his candidacy — from fraud and defamation cases in New York; his removal of documents jeopardising national security; his election subversion charges in various states. Should any of these lead to a conviction, a sizeable proportion of Trump supporters said he shouldn't be the Republican nominee. However, unless these lawsuits exclude him from the ballot entirely, this won't make a difference as Trump will likely be confirmed as the nominee by Super Tuesday on March 5th, long before these lawsuits are concluded.

The most likely scenario is that Haley and DeSantis are pitching their tents to be the future of the Republican party after Trump — each betting on a different horse. If the post-Trump GOP is still moulded in his image, a DeSantis-style candidacy of 'Trump after Trump' seems like a no-brainer. However, should Trump suffer another general election defeat, we may see a return to moderate-style Republicanism and a Nikki Haley ticket four years from now. For the time being though, Iowa has only confirmed one thing: Donald Trump is the man of the moment, and his primary opposition is being left in the dust.

What's next
  1. Bhutan's People's Democratic Party won 30 of the country's 47 parliamentary seats, with party leader Tshering Tobgay elected to a second term as Prime Minister. Democracy has only been part of Bhutanese life since 2008, and power transfers are delightfully seamless in a region plagued with electoral mistrust. The opposition expressed a desire to bury their differences and work together — a nice change of pace compared to the usual toxicity of electoral politics.
  2. Finland opened advanced voting ahead of its first-round presidential election on January 28th, with frontrunner Alexander Stubb of the centre-right National Coalition party holding a narrow lead over Green candidate Pekka Haavisto, separated by just two percentage points. Both have acknowledged the threat posed by Russia, but differ in tone — Stubb more hawkish, Haavisto emphasising the importance of not letting border tensions get in the way of legitimate asylum claims. With no candidate expected to clear 50%, a second-round run-off on February 11th looks likely.
  3. Comoros' President Azali Assoumani claimed a fourth term with just 16% turnout, prompting post-election protests in the capital Moroni. Assoumani established a curfew in an attempt to curtail unrest that saw buildings burnt and internet services disrupted, but protesters claimed to be undeterred, demanding the results be annulled.
Election calendar
  • January 26th – Tuvalu General Election
  • January 28th – Finland Presidential Election
  • February 4th – El Salvador General Election
  • February 7th – Azerbaijan Presidential Election
  • February 8th – Pakistan General Election
Final thoughts

Apparently, giving free beer to college students doesn't secure as many votes as you'd think. Vivek Ramaswamy learned that the hard way, with the numerous 'Free Speech and Free Drinks' events he held at Iowa universities not turning into success at the polls. Considering many students had no idea he would even be there, it's safe to say that people were more interested in the beer than in Vivek's policies — especially given a number of attendees were from other states and ineligible to caucus in Iowa anyway.