A Slovakian presidential election that could cause headaches for the EU. Also, Senegal finally votes this weekend, and political satire in Australia creates controversy ahead of a state election.

Slovakia holds the first round of its presidential election tomorrow in what could be a pivotal shift in the country's political dynamics. While historically a ceremonial role, the Slovak president can cause significant headaches for a prime minister if they are politically opposed — and this has certainly been the case since 2019. Zuzana Caputova, who is not running for a second term, cited a lack of energy for another five years in the spotlight. The repeated death threats against her family may have had something to do with that.

This has come in no small part due to ideological clashes with her populist prime minister, Robert Fico. Both him and members of his Smer party have labelled Caputova a 'traitor' and an 'American agent' due to her foreign policy stance advocating for closer relations with the West. The incumbent president has sued Fico for defamation over these claims, and has used her remaining time in power to fight the prime minister over legislation intended to weaken efforts to tackle corruption and organised crime.

Propping up populists

The frontrunner in tomorrow's election, Peter Pellegrini, does little to dispel concerns for Slovakian democracy. The current chairman of the Hlas party has repeatedly claimed that the only alliance he is interested in is one with Smer — which would clear the way for Fico's contentious policies to pass through unhindered. A victory for Pellegrini would likely lead to presidential pardons for government officials found guilty of bribery and corruption, as well as a more belligerent stance within the European Union over its pro-Ukraine policy. Slovakia's Foreign Minister has already met with Russia's Lavrov in Antalya, foreshadowing the direction of travel.

His likely opponent in a second-round run-off on April 6th is Ivan Korcok, the liberal former foreign minister who aligns closely with the ideologies of Caputova. His resolutely pro-Ukrainian stance — he served as Ambassador to the United States as recently as 2020 — would likely delay controversial reforms and provide a check on the pro-Russian rhetoric coming from the prime minister's office. With the backing of Caputova's Progressive Slovakia party, Korcok provides a challenge to the pro-Russian sentiment prominent in Slovakian politics.

The third-place candidate, some twenty points behind, is Stefan Harabin — who has had spells leading both the Supreme Court and the Ministry of Justice. His time in the Supreme Court saw him make controversial rulings that subverted attempts to tackle corruption, and he has gone so far as to claim that "Putin is a peace politician of global importance."

A second-round looms

Unsurprisingly, the implications of this election extend beyond Slovakia's borders. Should Pellegrini prove successful, Hungary will have a belligerent ally inside the European Union — something of importance to Viktor Orbán having lost his Polish partners after Donald Tusk's election victory last year. Opinion polls seem to favour a shift towards moderate voters, with Korcok and Pellegrini neck-and-neck, but the only candidate who has increased support in recent weeks is Harabin, nearly doubling his popularity over the last six weeks. His supporters are unlikely to break for Korcok, leaving Ukraine's best hopes in Slovakia with an uphill battle to secure the presidency in the second round.

What's next
  1. India officially confirmed the dates of their upcoming general election — anticipated to be the largest in history, with close to one billion eligible voters. Voting will take place over several weeks, commencing on April 19th and ending on June 1st. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to win a third consecutive term. Critics argue the playing field has been made increasingly uneven in favour of the BJP, with Freedom House assessing that civil liberties have been significantly eroded over the past decade.
  2. Senegal will finally hold its presidential election this Sunday after nearly two months of indecision. The release of Bassirou Faye and Ousmane Sonko from prison has strengthened the opposition ahead of the vote. With Faye prioritising policies that address inequality and corruption, and Sonko throwing his weight behind the campaign, the two have drawn huge crowds on the campaign trail, particularly attracting young supporters.
  3. The election of Vaughan Gething as First Minister of Wales created history — he is the first black leader of any European country, and his appointment means that for the first time in British history there are no white male heads of government across the home nations. As a Labour member, Gething will be greatly anticipating a general election expected to oust the Conservatives after fourteen years in power.
Election calendar
  • March 23rd – Slovakia Presidential Election (first round)
  • March 23rd – Australia: Tasmania State Election
  • March 24th – Senegal Presidential Election
  • March 31st – Turkey Local Election
  • April 10th – South Korea Legislative Election
Final thoughts

Another election taking place this weekend is in the Australian state of Tasmania. News of such elections rarely finds its way out of domestic borders, but one satirical video has caused a lengthy discussion regarding freedom of political expression. The Juice Media, known for its "honest government" satire series, was told by the Electoral Commission to either take down a video or face a hefty fine due to its inclusion of a blurred image of Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff without his consent. Their video hilariously depicts the state as a place of "vanishing wonders," from affordable rents to wildlife preservation — well worth a watch.